The Issue

Africa RiskView is a software programme that enables ARC and its Member States to model the impacts of various natural hazards (drought, cyclone, or flood) on vulnerable populations. In the case of drought, the model monitors changes during the agricultural season that affect crop and range land development, estimates the number of people affected by those changes and the cost of organising humanitarian response (also called Modelled Response Cost). To do this, it overlays hazard-specific data such as rainfall, vegetation condition, wind speed or storm surge with population and vulnerability data and other information on local-to-national conditions.

The Africa RiskView Customisation Stage runs parallel to the Contingency Planning Stage in the ARC Program Life Cycle. Customising the underlying risk models in ARV is one of the criteria required for a Certificate of Good Standing, which in turn is needed for the country to participate in the ARC Ltd risk pool. The country customises the model parameters through an in-country Technical Working Group, based on known country specific characteristics. When a country has taken out a risk insurance policy with ARC Ltd, insurance payouts are triggered when the set model thresholds are crossed.
The outputs of the risk models depend on the quality of the inputs into the models, and these depend on the country’s ability to supply accurate, gender-sensitive data on population, exposure, poverty and other relevant variables.

Since ARC’s Gender Strategy was launched in 2019, efforts have started to integrate gender into ARV customisation. There are key entry points in Africa RiskView for ARC to put its commitments to gender equality into practice, as described below. The following Gender Checklists for each of those entry points will help stakeholders ensure the crucial checks are in place for gender mainstreaming.

Key entry points and checklists

1. Preparations

When the country sets up its ARV/TWG sub-committee, it should :

• Select a gender-balanced committee or team to manage the ARV customisation process.
• Facilitate tailored gender training for the committee or team managing the ARV customisation process, if not already conducted in the previous processes.

2. Selection/Approval of Country Inputs

After the ARV/TWG subgroup has compiled pertinent risk knowledge and information from all annual assessment processes that take place in the country (covering both hazards and vulnerability), these are input into ARV.
To ensure that ARV products reflect ARC’s commitment to promoting gender equality, the data that it uses as model inputs and the processes to generate them have to be gender equitable. This means ARC should ensure the country :

• Accurately models the effects of drought on food and nutrition security and income.
• Ensures that the vulnerable population data is disaggregated by sex.
• Ensures that the data on household head types is disaggregated by sex.
• Undertakes analysis to assess if there are differences in agricultural practices (crops cultivated, varieties, sowing time) between men and women to ensure that the relevant adjustments are made in the model and such analysis included in the customisation report.
• Based on analysis, considers if it is necessary to set the response cost by gender (i.e. a different response cost for female headed households and male headed households).

3. Validation of Model Outputs

Based on the data input, ARV generates a set of outputs such as the population affected by year and aggregation polygon, modelled response costs and modelled direct economic losses. These outputs are reviewed at country level through the TWG and other experts, with the support of the ARC Technical Support Division, that review their consistency with historical disaster events and other datasets. Through testing and running different parameter simulations, the TWG customises the models and validates them.
To ensure that ARV products reflect ARC’s commitment to promoting gender equality, the TWG should :

• Assess and update the scenarios from a gender-perspective, through discussions with experts who know the context, comparing them with historical observed data, to test to what extent the modelled impacts align with observed or documented impacts on men and women.
• Validate the model outputs through discussions with men and women affected by the historical disasters, to test to what extent the modelled impacts align with observed and anecdotal data on differentiated impact.
• With the ARC Technical Support Division, adjust the parameters of the model until the TWG is satisfied that it matches field realities.

4. Review by the Customisation Review Committee (CRC)

The Customisation Review Committee (CRC) reviews customisations of Africa RiskView risk models carried out by ARC Member States and provides recommendations to governments’ Technical Working Groups (TWG) on how customisations could be improved, if needed. It includes experts with a continental/regional mandate and knowledge and expertise in agriculture, livestock, or vulnerability analysis, climate risk modelling, as well as national level experts with in-depth country-specific knowledge on cropping patterns and vulnerability conditions.
To ensure that ARC is enacting its commitment to promoting gender equality, ARC should ensure that the CRC is gender-balanced and ensure all members receive gender training. The CRC should :

• Check how the country-level team (TWG/ARV committee) proposes to customise the products, using gender-related questions such as : ‘Do the modelled impacts align with observed or documented impacts on men and women ? And ‘Do the modelled impacts align with anecdotal data on differentiated impact ?
• Make recommendations to ensure that country-specific customisations are undertaken using a gender lens.

Key Messages

• If gender is reflected in the inputs into the ARV, the model outputs can contribute to gender sensitive response operations, further women’s empowerment and achieve gender equality.
• There are gender mainstreaming responsibilities for all those involved in the ARV customisation, from the country team, to the CRC, and to ARC Technical Support Division.
• Staff should use the Gender checklists to ensure the crucial steps and checks are in place for Gender mainstreaming throughout the ARV Customisation process.